The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a second straight 25-basis-point interest rate cut as it tries to balance still-elevated inflation against a cooling labor market, with policymakers constrained by gaps in official data caused by an ongoing government shutdown. The move, expected at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, would lower the federal funds rate target range further into the roughly 3.75–4% area after a similar cut in September restarted the easing cycle that had been on hold since late 2024. This decision comes as inflation has fallen significantly from its mid‑2022 peak but remains above the Fed’s 2% target, while job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up, prompting concern that labor-market conditions are weakening. Fed officials have emphasized their dual mandate—maximum employment and stable prices—and recent statements highlight rising downside risks to employment and an intent to "carefully assess" limited incoming data and the balance of risks before considering any additional policy moves. Market participants are focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s policy statement and press conference for signals on whether this cut is part of a short sequence of moves or a one‑off adjustment, especially given internal divisions on the FOMC over how quickly to ease and futures pricing that implies a meaningful chance of another cut at the December meeting.

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