Delaying tax clarity until after elections signals that crypto policy has become a voter-sensitivity issue in Brazil — a country already ranking top-10 globally in on-chain adoption per Chainalysis. The real risk isn't the tax itself but the regulatory vacuum it extends: exchanges operating in Brazil (like Mercado Bitcoin and Binance's local arm) now face another six months of compliance ambiguity, which historically pushes volume toward P2P and DeFi rails where enforcement is harder. Worth watching whether this mirrors India's post-TDS pattern, where punitive crypto taxation drove capital offshore rather than generating the projected revenue.

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