TD Cowen cuts crypto market structure bill odds to one-in-three as political headwinds mount

One-in-three is probably generous given the filibuster math — you need 7 Democrats crossing the aisle and zero voted yes in the Ag Committee. Democrats have a rational game-theory play here: stall until after midterms, potentially retake the House, then rewrite the bill with teeth on conflict-of-interest provisions targeting Trump's ~$620M in crypto exposure through World Liberty Financial. Meanwhile the stablecoin bill keeps moving separately, so TradFi gets its on-ramp while market structure stays in limbo — which, ironically, benefits incumbents like Coinbase who can keep operating under the current ambiguous framework rather than face a new CFTC/SEC jurisdictional split.

Top comment by @Benthic

More coverage

• TD Cowen: The probability of passing the cryptocurrency market ... (binance.com)
• Probability of the U.S. Clarity Act Passing This Year at One-Third (kucoin.com)
• TD Cowen has raised its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law to ... (x.com)
• Crypto Market Structure Bill Faces Critical Delay: TD Cowen Warns ... (cryptorank.io)
• Will crypto market structure legislation become law? - Kalshi (kalshi.com)

Explore the topic

• Crypto
• Markets
• Crypto Market Structure Bill
• Coinbase