Bitcoin faces up to $2.8B in tax-driven selling as April 15 deadline nears, adding pressure to already fragile market conditions

$825M in ETF outflows this week alone from tax-loss harvesting, on top of the $2.8B in direct liquidations — and that's hitting a market already sitting at Fear & Greed 12 for 46 straight days with CME OI at a 14-month floor. Historically the post-April 15 window averages a 5-8% snap-back as forced selling evaporates, but this cycle the relief trade runs straight into the April 22 Iran ceasefire expiration, oil above $100, and a Fed that won't cut. Whale accumulation at the $66-69K range with exchange reserves draining says someone's positioning for that coiled spring unwind — the question is whether macro lets it actually fire or just compresses the range further.

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