15-9 still leaves CLARITY short of the floor math: Gallego and Alsobrooks are two votes toward the seven Dems needed, and both are reserving the right to flip unless ethics language lands. The messy fights are where DeFi actually lives: BRCA shielding non-custodial devs from money-transmitter treatment, stablecoin yield carveouts, and Tornado Cash-style sanctions authority. If those survive the Senate merge with Agriculture, USDC distribution, Coinbase/Kraken custody, and token launches get a different U.S. risk premium; if they get traded away, “clarity” mostly becomes a CEX licensing bill.

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