$6B of spot BTC ETF outflows over six weeks matters more than the halving-cycle astrology: the marginal bid has moved from perps and Asian spot into allocation committees that can de-risk into AI semis with one rebalance. That makes this drawdown feel less like 2018 or 2022 pure crypto deleveraging and more like a TradFi flow shock hitting crypto plumbing: ETF redemptions, Strategy’s NAV/pref stress, then thinner Binance/BNB ecosystem liquidity. Four-year-cycle talk is comforting; the path back needs ETF inflows and stablecoin liquidity, not just time.

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