Quantum computing progress makes blockchain migration more urgent, but no verifiable private key attack exists yet

A 2026 white paper by Babbush, Zalcman, Gidney and colleagues estimates a secp256k1 private-key attack could run on under 500,000 physical qubits in roughly 18–23 minutes, with the cited 9–12 minute figures requiring precomputation. Google's October 2026 Science paper validated magic-state cultivation on Willow, but only one component of a full attack. Europol's EC3 report (October 7, 2026) calls for phased migration. The author stresses no verifiable private-key recovery or RSA-2048 factoring exists, and Q-Day has no single agreed date.

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