Kalshi favourites won 98% of midterm races
According to Kalshi, the market favourite won 479 of the 487 races called so far, all forecast before counting began. Kalshi says it beat the polls and the models

Kalshi claims its market favourites won 479 of 487 midterm races called so far, with all forecasts made before counting began. The exchange says it outperformed forecasting models on Brier score, a measure of forecast accuracy where lower is better. In key Senate races, traders reportedly priced winners at 99%+ an average of 115 minutes before CNN made its calls, a pattern the company says held across networks. Kalshi also states candidates priced at 50% won roughly half the time, and says it will release more data over time. All figures are Kalshi's own claims from its election-night data thread.

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