Prediction markets face mortgage bubble comparisons as sports parlays drive 85% of June volume

The author argues prediction markets are repeating the mortgage-bond dynamic from The Big Short: a sound, boring product degraded once quality supply ran out. Sports betting now dominates, making up roughly 85% of June volume, and Bloomberg reportedly counted $294 million in net customer losses on parlays this year. The author promotes Aries as sticking to the original concept—elections and economic events—with live odds on every Senate, House and Governor race, contrasting polls, which show what people say, with markets, which show what they back with money. The post is promotional in tone, framing rivals' sports offerings as gambling while positioning Aries as the principled alternative.

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