Cobie returns to Substack with the first of a three-part series on new token launches detailing why the majority of new launches are uninvestable at market. He concludes that investors should instead focus on finding value in the market others have forgotten, or has become mispriced and out of favour.

Cobie’s return to Substack was the first installment of a three-part series on new token launches, arguing that many newly launched crypto tokens are effectively uninvestable at market because most of the upside has already been captured before public trading begins. He frames the issue around “low float, high FDV” launches, saying that in the modern market price discovery often happens privately, off-market, and sometimes at inflated valuations driven by private-round dynamics rather than public demand. The post matters because it challenges a common crypto market narrative: that a token’s public listing price offers a clean entry point for upside. Cobie instead argues buyers should think about the token’s FDV relative to the broader market and the market’s direction, while also emphasizing that investors may find better opportunities in assets the market has forgotten, underpriced, or fallen out of favor. This follows a broader theme in his writing that valuation in crypto is often shaped by supply, unlocks, and attention rather than simple market-cap optics.

✨ AI-generated background, compiled from web sources — not editorial content.

More coverage

• New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing (cobie.substack.com)
• Incentives structures - Cobie | Substack (cobie.substack.com)
• On the meme of market caps & unlocks - Cobie | Substack (cobie.substack.com)
• Tokens in the attention economy - Cobie | Substack (cobie.substack.com)
• Comments - New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing (cobie.substack.com)

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