According to the author, most of crypto's onchain experiments failed without proving product-market fit, and 2026 has brought a wave of shutdowns and pivots across nearly every sector. Cited examples: restaking TVL fell from about $30B to roughly $8B; BOB's TVL dropped 96.6%; CryptoPunks slid from 125 to 32 ETH; Axie Infinity went from 6.5M monthly wallets to under 100K. The market now splits between speculative demand (memecoins, perps, prediction markets) and real-economy uses (stablecoins, RWAs), with firms like Coinbase and Robinhood converging on the same product stack. The author argues new categories can still emerge.

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