Prediction markets hit record $194.1B quarter as Kalshi card deposits concentrate in states without legal sports betting

Q3 2026 saw record prediction-market volume of $194.1 billion in notional terms, up 75% from Q2, per Predicted's report. US-regulated exchanges took 89% of that volume; Kalshi and Polymarket combined accounted for 91%. Parlays (44%) overtook single sports events (39%). Data from American Spend showed 53% of Kalshi's card deposits came from the 11 states banning sports betting, versus 4% at DraftKings. Kalshi and Polymarket US rose from 3% to 11% of card deposits across eight tracked apps, and drew more US search demand than any betting brand.

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