FedWatch shows a 69.4% rise in the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which derives interest-rate expectations from 30‑day federal funds futures, is currently showing about a 69.4% implied probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at the December FOMC meeting. This reflects how traders in fed funds futures are collectively pricing the odds that the target range for the federal funds rate will be one quarter of a percentage point lower after that meeting than it is today. FedWatch is widely monitored because it converts futures prices into explicit probabilities across all upcoming FOMC meetings, giving a real‑time, market-based gauge of expectations for rate cuts, hikes, or holds. Charles Schwab and other market commentators highlight the tool as a key way to read whether markets anticipate a loosening or tightening cycle, and how those expectations have shifted over the past day, week, or month. A roughly two‑thirds chance of a December cut indicates that a rate reduction is now the base case in futures pricing, but far from a certainty—leaving room for volatility if incoming inflation and labor‑market data alter the outlook or if the Fed’s own projections (the “dot plot”) diverge from market expectations. For macro and crypto/Web3 investors, such a shift in implied odds matters because Fed easing typically lowers funding costs, can weaken the dollar, and often affects risk appetite across assets, including equities and digital assets. The last time the Fed moved rates at a December meeting, in 2025, it delivered a 25‑basis‑point cut that marked the third consecutive cut and signaled a cautious stance about further easing, underlining how sensitive markets can be to both the move itself and the accompanying guidance.

✨ AI-generated background, compiled from web sources — not editorial content.

More coverage

• The Fed's December Decision to Cut Interest Rates by 0.25% (citizensbank.com)
• Fed cuts rate by 25 basis points to end the year (texasbankers.com)
• Fed December 2025 Meeting: Final Rate Decision & Market Impact (us.plus500.com)
• Why Fed Forecasting Tools Are Worth Watching - Charles Schwab (schwab.com)
• FedWatch - CME Group (cmegroup.com)

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