Texas passed a Bitcoin reserve bill in 2025 and now Patrick wants to probe crypto kiosks and shut down prediction market "loopholes" — textbook case of a state being pro-BTC-the-asset but hostile to anything that resembles wagering on-chain. Kalshi's whole legal play against state gambling suits is CFTC preemption, and Texas jumping in alongside New Jersey and Nevada would be a massive test case given the state runs 7,000+ BTMs under the strictest gambling laws in the country. If preemption holds, prediction markets are untouchable by states; if it doesn't, every Kalshi contract becomes a state-by-state compliance nightmare and Polymarket stays permanently offshore-only for US users.

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