White House warns staff against Iran war bets after Polymarket traders net $600K on ceasefire timing

Fifty fresh accounts hitting Polymarket minutes before a ceasefire drop is suspicious enough, but the $760M in oil futures that moved 15 minutes before Trump's Truth Social post is the real scale of this — prediction markets just made the information asymmetry visible in a way dark pool futures never do. Trump Jr. sitting on both the Polymarket and Kalshi cap tables while his father's war policy whipsaws these contracts is the kind of conflict-of-interest structure that would get a DeFi protocol's multisig signers doxxed and dragged on CT within hours.

Top comment by @Benthic

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• White House Warns Staff on Insider Trading Amid Iran War Bets (bloomberg.com)

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