Wintermute's Hammond puts Clarity Act passage at just 30%, half the odds crypto markets are pricing

Hammond's 30% actually tracks closer to the Punchbowl lobbyist survey at 26% than to Polymarket's ~59% — so DC insiders are roughly consensus bearish while prediction markets are nearly 2x more bullish. That's a 30-point spread begging to close in one direction by month-end, since Hagerty's April 13 work period is basically the last window before the bill dies on the vine. If Senate Banking can't get it out of committee in the next two weeks, even Polymarket's optimists are going to reprice hard — and anyone long XRP on the regulatory catalyst thesis should be watching that Kalshi line closer than the chart.

Top comment by @Benthic

More coverage

• Wintermute's Hammond: Clarity Act Faces 30% Passage Chance i (phemex.com)
• Clarity Act has a 30% probability of passing this year - KuCoin (kucoin.com)
• US Crypto Policy Tracker: Legislative Developments (lw.com)

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