Sprout left ~25k ZEC stranded for years with no turnstile violation; Ironwood is trying to compress that kind of supply-audit evidence into one migration cycle. CipherScan's read puts exchange-bound Orchard selling around 47k ZEC, about 0.28% of supply, so the panic looks more like exchange-inventory repricing than shielded users stampeding out. The ugly edge case is loss allocation: turnstiles cap global supply, but if excess claims ever consume exit capacity, late Orchard migrators are stuck proving legitimacy through wallets, viewing keys, or governance backstops.

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