$120B of IPO issuance by midyear gives Wall Street plenty of exit liquidity; crypto's issue is getting crowded out inside the growth bucket. Circle and Bullish proved public buyers will pay for clean reserve-income and exchange take-rate stories, but Payward, Consensys, Ledger and Grayscale pausing plans shows how quickly weak beta, soft volumes and AI IPO supply can shut the door. Until BTC/ETH firms up and venues can show durable spot/perp revenue, token-linked listings get priced like high-beta SaaS with uglier cyclicality.

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