Story signal · how it spread on X · via Elfa

as of
thread quiet
Spread
i
Distinct X and Telegram accounts Elfa counted behind this story’s reports, summed over the thread. Not posts, not impressions.
55 accounts

11 reports
first post
Leviathan +11.3 h later

ARC reaction
i
Price change from the first post to 24 hours later (CoinGecko). BTC over the same window is shown so a market-wide move is not mistaken for a reaction to this story. Not advice.
+43.1% 24h after post

$0.00145 → $0.00207
BTC +0.2% same window

CRCL reaction
i
Price change from the first post to 24 hours later (Hyperliquid). BTC over the same window is shown so a market-wide move is not mistaken for a reaction to this story. Not advice.
−3.2% 24h after post

$86.12 → $83.34
BTC +0.2% same window

Thread · 8 of 15 events · started 6 Aug 08:17 · last update 8 Oct 17:29 · quiet
  1. UpdateARC mainnet launch scheduled for live coverage from NYC3 acc.
  2. UpdateArc mainnet launch draws wallet support from OKX and Binance87 acc.
  3. UpdateArc mainnet launches125 acc.
  4. UpdateArc and OpenSea launch a free commemorative NFT mint on Arc mainnet16 acc.
  5. Leviathan published this article
  6. UpdateArc mainnet launches with fintech and stablecoin infrastructure already onboard4 acc.
  7. UpdateArc goes live on PayBox, enabling AI-agent trading and transactions6 acc.
  8. UpdateCircle’s Arc mainnet posts strong first-week USDC activity and adoption metrics7 acc.
  9. UpdateExtended is moving settlement to Arc, with trading continuing during the migration2 acc.

All times UTC.

Cited posts

  • @wyckoffweb wyck 📴First reportOn X ↗

    Just minted Opensea Open Edition NFT for FREE on Arc mainnet. You can mint here: https://t.co/IKIKMCgq1A Mint is FREE

  • @thenameisbrill Brill (🐝)On X ↗

    First free mint on @arc Opensea x arc dropped a free NFT Mint here: https://t.co/xCF9EXgOB2 Done

  • @beijingdou Josh OngOn X ↗

    Free commemorative NFT from @opensea on the new @arc L1 by Circle. https://t.co/MzWNc2sMvV

Show 3 more cited posts
  • @Krypto_nation Krypto_nation👾On X ↗

    Just minted Opensea Open Edition NFT for FREE on Arc mainnet. ~Visit to mint 🔗https://t.co/OPRwE5eDQu Mint is free‼️

  • @atoms_res ATOMSOn X ↗

    ⚡️ Get a Free Arc x OpenSea NFT To celebrate the @arc mainnet launch, OpenSea launched an NFT 🔗 Mint here: https://t.co/2iYRm3SFHT 📆 Deadline: Sep 17

  • @ausbro80 terry jang • ᴗ •On X ↗

    OPENSEA에서 ARC FREE minting중입니다. @arc 출시 축하 NFT라서 가격 상승 기대는 0이지만 기념주화 처럼 NFT하나씩 가져가시죠

49 more accounts posted about this · 3 Telegram channels (no public link)

TradersTrader calls tracked by Elfa · not advice

Positioning · ARC

Open66 open positions · 64 long · 2 short

Tracked accounts lean long about 97% of the time, so a long-heavy book is normal, not a signal. As of 3 Oct 09:17 UTC.

Reaction since the first post

Since 16 Sep 11:06 UTC30+ calls opened · 28 long · 2 short

Ongoing flow, not necessarily a reaction: Elfa returns at most 30 calls, so this count is a floor.

Callers with a scored record

@AntCaveClub long · entry $0.00180alpha −0.038 · 57% hit rate · 21 scored
@thenftjosh long · entry $0.00215alpha −0.101 · 46% hit rate · 33 scored
@0x_SixxxVC long · entry $0.00164alpha −0.129 · 50% hit rate · 26 scored

Alpha, hit rate and sample size exactly as Elfa reports them.

Whole crypto market, not this story

Crowding88th percentile · vs last 28 days, 50 typical
Pulse 24h44/100 · unusualness of new calls, 0–100, 50 typical, higher means more long than usual
Book97.4% long · 11,376 accounts

As of 16 Oct 20:10 UTC.

Social-monitoring data, not investment advice Elfa prices CoinGecko prices Hyperliquid post text from Xas of

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