Venture capital's McDonaldization: rational optimizations, irrational outcome as a16z takes 20% of US VC as first-time funds fell to 81

Kyle Harrison argues venture capital has been "McDonaldized"—rational optimizations compounding into an irrational outcome. Through Q3 2026, US VC funds raised $108.5B, up ~39% over all of 2025, yet first-time funds fell from 479 in 2022 to 81, while established firms took a record 88.2% of capital. a16z closed $23.8B, over 20% of US VC. He describes an "agglomerator effect": big firms, sovereign allocators, and AI absorbers like OpenAI concentrating capital, leaving small "renegade" spinouts ($80M–$350M) coexisting rather than disrupting.

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