Nearly 85% of tokens now trade below TGE valuation as complex tokenomics fail to compensate for weak products and lack of real users
𝕏/@matty_ •
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Promote with Leviathan NewsIn early 2025, on-chain analysts and research firms began highlighting that the vast majority of new crypto tokens were trading below their Token Generation Event (TGE) valuations, implying that launch pricing and complex tokenomics were not being supported by real product demand or active user bases. Data from Momento Research, amplified on X by market commentators like Matty (@matty), showed that about 84.7%–85% of 2025 token launches were below their TGE prices, with the median token’s fully diluted valuation down roughly 71% from launch. This marked a sharp contrast with earlier cycles in which tokens often rallied immediately after TGE and reinforced the view that TGE is no longer “early” from a valuation perspective. Researchers traced this underperformance to several structural issues: overvalued public launch prices relative to earlier venture rounds; an oversupply of new tokens fragmenting liquidity; weak real user adoption; and reliance on complex vesting schedules and incentive schemes that failed to offset the absence of sustainable product-market fit. Analysis from Galaxy Research and others noted that even VC-backed projects struggled to deliver returns, while new crypto fund creation dropped to multi‑year lows and venture ROI declined steadily since 2022, reducing the speculative tailwind that had previously supported new listings. Industry commentary connected these trends to a broader shift in market discipline, with investors increasingly prioritizing genuine usage, revenue, and simpler, more transparent token designs over aggressive launch valuations and intricate tokenomics.
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