Bitcoin shrugs off slumping GDP and hot inflation to push toward $73K on rate-cut bets

CME fed funds futures are pricing in 2-3 cuts by year-end, but the FOMC dot plot and IMF both project barely one — from 3.6% to 3.4% across all of 2026. BTC dropped 27% from its $126K peak after the *actual* December rate cut when 3 of 12 voting members dissented, the highest since 2019. Rallying on rate-cut expectations while selling the rate-cut reality is classic reflexive positioning — works until CPI prints 3.4%+ and the carry trade unwinds. Implied vol sitting at January lows while everyone front-runs a dovish pivot that may never materialize is suspiciously comfortable.

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