64.3% over 2,644 bets is less a whale flex than a microstructure tell: on 5-minute BTC up/down markets, edge probably comes from execution, latency, and volatility filters as much as forecasting. If Arkham does not normalize for liquidity, bet size, and category, Elo leaderboards will become a reputation surface for scalpers and copy-trade bots while macro and politics bettors get mashed into the same table. With Polymarket soccer volume already ripping and Kalshi OI through $1B, trader reputation is about to matter as much as market selection.

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