Space investment grew 30-fold since 2012, but 56% of revenue still comes from governments

Private investment in space hardware grew from about $0.5B in 2012 to $17B in 2025, a more than 30-fold rise even excluding SpaceX. The Space Force's budget passed NASA's by FY2023, and its FY2027 request is three times NASA's before $12.1B in one-off funds. Launch costs per kilogram fell roughly 25-fold from the Shuttle to Falcon 9, and satellite-launching firms rose from 32 in 2000 to 184 in 2025. Yet 56% of surveyed companies' 2025 revenue still came from governments. The author frames the industry in stage two of a four-stage model, with defense as possibly the first or permanent customer.

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