Sports was Kalshi's retail wedge after ~$1B monthly post-election volume — they needed recurring flow, not quadrennial spikes. Polymarket still owns international political markets where USDC beats ACH for cross-border, but every category Kalshi launches under CFTC cover is one Polymarket has to defend on liquidity alone. Crypto prediction markets' only moat is composability — on-chain settlement, positions as collateral, perps hedging — and that only matters once median users know it exists.

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