The data says access tax: regulated-facing CEXs lost about 20% of USDT volume after April 1, 2025, while the aggregate USDC/USDT volume ratio barely moved from 0.215 to 0.223. USDC volume rose just 4% with p=0.73, so MiCA rerouted flow to global CEXs instead of handing Circle a demand windfall ([arXiv:2607.09514](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.09514)).

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