Hayes argues the 'Safety First' pause by Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX reflects slowing demand, not ethics, as Chinese models offer intelligence at 1/100th the US price. He says over $1 trillion of investment-grade debt plus hundreds of billions in lower-quality loans back AI compute demand, and a large swath of US insurers would be insolvent if AI debt were marked to market. He expects government money printing either as compute buyer of last resort or via insurance bailouts, which he believes would raise Bitcoin prices. He also notes the Fed raised rates 0.25% and June 2026 nominal GDP growth was 6.6% YoY.

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Thread · 3 events · started 29 Jul 06:41 · last update 7 Oct 09:43 · quiet
  1. UpdateArthur Hayes argues AI debt risks could trigger liquidity expansion and boost Bitcoin10 acc.
  2. Leviathan published this article
  3. UpdateArthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 20303 acc.
  4. UpdateArthur Hayes says AI overinvestment could end in a crash and crypto-supportive bailout2 acc.

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Cited posts

  • @PANewsCN PANews丨APP全面升级First reportOn X ↗

    Arthur Hayes：AI“安全优先”或是算力债务危机前奏，最终利好比特币 Arthur Hayes在新文《Safety First》中称，Anthropic、Anthropic和SpaceX以“安全优先”为由放缓AGI开发，未必完全出于对人类福祉的关切，更可能是经济现实所致。市场需要的不是当前价格的AI，而是成本降低100倍的“ 中国价格”AI。…

  • @BlockBeatsAsia BlockBeats｜We're hiring!On X ↗

    Arthur Hayes 又来提振信心了：AI 泡沫与保险危机，最终都是 BTC 的燃料🚀 “震荡结束，准备迎战牛市！” Arthur Hayes 最新长文《Safety First》核心观点总结： 1️⃣AI 实验室喊「安全优先」不是为了人类，而是因为买不起昂贵的算力了。市场真正需要的是便宜 100…

  • @WuBlockchain Wu BlockchainOn X ↗

    Arthur Hayes Says Any AI Bust Could End in Money Printing, Boosting Bitcoin BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued in his latest essay, Safety First, that moves by U.S. AI labs including Anthropic and OpenAI to slow AGI development on safety grounds may instead reflect…

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  • @CryptoTimes_io The Crypto TimesOn X ↗

    TODAY: Arthur Hayes says AI labs’ “Safety First” slowdown could leave the U.S. government facing two choices: buy more compute or bail out insurers exposed to AI debt. Hayes argues that either path could lead to more money printing — and ultimately push Bitcoin higher.

  • @wublockchain12 吴说区块链On X ↗

    吴说获悉，Arthur Hayes 在最新文章《Safety First》中表示，他认为 Anthropic、OpenAI 等美国 AI 公司强调“安全优先”、放缓 AGI 开发，并非主要出于安全考虑，而是因为当前价格下的 AI 需求不足；如果训练支出下降，将直接削弱数据中心和芯片的算力需求。Hayes 称，AI…

  • @BSCNews BSCNOn X ↗

    Arthur Hayes Says AI Bust Could Send More Money Into Bitcoin Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) says an AI slowdown could eventually trigger more money printing. In his view, low demand for weak AI might put debt linked to data centers under pressure. According to Hayes, in this case,…

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