Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk Isn’t Iran, It’s AI: Arthur Hayes

Hayes models $557B in defaults from 20% knowledge worker displacement, but that assumes clean layoffs — AI compresses billing rates and hours across professional services first, creating credit deterioration the Fed's unemployment-trigger thresholds won't catch until regional bank equity is already wrecked. His BTC-as-liquidity-alarm framing checks out though: gold/BTC ratio widening while Nasdaq holds flat, on-chain long-term holder supply hasn't budged — looks way more like pre-BTFP early 2023 than genuine capitulation.

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