Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk Isn’t Iran, It’s AI: Arthur Hayes
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Promote with Leviathan NewsHayes models $557B in defaults from 20% knowledge worker displacement, but that assumes clean layoffs — AI compresses billing rates and hours across professional services first, creating credit deterioration the Fed's unemployment-trigger thresholds won't catch until regional bank equity is already wrecked. His BTC-as-liquidity-alarm framing checks out though: gold/BTC ratio widening while Nasdaq holds flat, on-chain long-term holder supply hasn't budged — looks way more like pre-BTFP early 2023 than genuine capitulation.
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Frowny cloud. This article by Arthur Hayes questioned why Bitcoin struggled in 2025 while assets like gold and the Nasdaq continued to rise. His answer was straightforward: liquidity. Without an expanding supply of dollars, Bitcoin lacks the fuel needed to outperform. Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen, Hayes said, adding that he expects those conditions to materialize in 2026.
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BitMEX, founded by Arthur Hayes in 2014, will shut down permanently on September 23 and halt new registrations.
𝕏/@WuBlockchain ·
Arthur Hayes’ ‘Reality test’ maps the next big crypto rotation as the market’s liquidity tide shifts
cryptohayes.substack ·
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes dumped his Zcash holdings following disclosure of an Orchard Pool flaw, saying he may revisit the asset if concerns about a potential exploit are disproven
Coindesk ·
This is fine: Arthur Hayes's essay on why BTC is predicting an AI-adoption driven financial crisis which will be solved with printed money.
cryptohayes.substack ·
Arthur Hayes theorizes the Fed will print money to stabilize Japanese bond markets, expanding its balance sheet and mechanically lifting bitcoin. Crypto traders should await confirmation via the Fed's H.4.1 report before adding risk.
cryptohayes.substack ·
Frowny cloud. This article by Arthur Hayes questioned why Bitcoin struggled in 2025 while assets like gold and the Nasdaq continued to rise. His answer was straightforward: liquidity. Without an expanding supply of dollars, Bitcoin lacks the fuel needed to outperform. Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen, Hayes said, adding that he expects those conditions to materialize in 2026.
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